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UNSC Expansion Would 'Certify Transition From US Unipolarism to Multipolarity': Scholar_我的网站

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A | The UN General Assembly in New York is meeting Tuesday to discuss ways to make the Security Council more representative and equitable.,The meeting, convened by General Assembly President Abdulla Shahid in a letter dated July 7, is tasked with deliberating the “question of equitable representation and an increase in the membership of the Security Council and other matters related to the Security Council.” Sahid is expected to present a draft oral decision “following consultations” with General Assembly members.,A draft presented on the UN’s website reaffirms “the central role of the General Assembly concerning the question of equitable representation on and increase in the membership of the Security Council,” and expresses “the commitment of heads of state and government representing the peoples of the world to instill new life in the discussions on the reform of the Security Council.”,The draft proposes the continuation of “intergovernmental negotiations on Security Council reform” at the upcoming 77th General Assembly in September, including the creation of an “open-ended working group” to discuss the matter.,Background,Created as part of the United Nations after the end of the Second World War, the Security Council consists of the world’s five major nuclear powers (Russia, China, the United States, France, and Britain) and 10 rotating non-permanent members. Collectively, their main goal is the maintenance of international peace and security.,A key difference between the UN and its Security Council and the League of Nations – the defunct intergovernmental organization formed in the aftermath of the First World War, is the inclusion in the former of the right for each permanent member to veto substantive resolutions made by other members, such as accepting new members into the UN, or authorizing the use of force against another country.,The veto concept was a hard-fought victory of the Soviet delegation at the San Francisco conference on the UN’s formation. Moscow argued for the right of veto to prevent one or more major powers from ganging up on others to pursue national geopolitical, economic, or military interests at the expense of others using the UN platform to provide such actions with legitimacy.,The veto principle enabled the Security Council and the UN generally to the survive multiple international crises, both during the Cold War and in the three decades after 1991, and ensured that the UN did not collapse, as its League of Nations predecessor did, in times of crisis.,Putin on 75th Anniversary of WWII: Shared Responsibility to History and Future18 June 2020, 19:47 GMT,Why Reform Now?,The Security Council underwent two major reforms: in 1965, when the original non-permanent membership was increased from six to ten to account for the emergence of new countries in the Global South after the collapse of European colonial empires, and in 1971, when the US dropped its veto to allow the People’s Republic of China to take up its rightful seat at the Security Council, replacing Taiwan.,Discussions on reforming the Security Council began anew in the early 1990s, as the United States and its allies, convinced of their triumph and status as leaders of a new global order following the collapse of the USSR, began discussing the "end of history" and conceptualizing ways to make the 21st century an “American century.” On the other side of the debate, rising powers from the Third World began pushing to reform the UN to make it more representative of their interests.,In 2005, rising economic giants India and Brazil, as well as Germany and Japan, the defeated Axis powers, formed the so-called G4 group of nations to support one another’s push for permanent Security Council membership. In 2005, then-UN Secretary General Kofi Annan put forward a proposal to expand the council to 24 members, either by creating six new permanent members and three new non-permanent ones, or eight new non-permanent members of a new class of rotating members and one additional non-permanent seat. In 2017, the G4 announced their readiness to temporarily accept non-veto wielding status to become permanent Security Council members.,Opponents of reforming the Security Council have made arguments on the basis of perceived balance of power-related concerns, such as Pakistan opposing India’s permanent membership, or Spain and Italy opposing German membership, South Korea opposing Japanese membership, and major Latin American powers like Argentina, Mexico, and Colombia opposing Brazil’s membership. Other rising powers, such as Turkey, have argued in favor of the Security Council’s expansion to better represent Asian, Latin American, and African countries.,Moscow has paid a heavy price for its permanent membership in the Security Council, first through its central role in defeating Nazi Germany and Japan during the Second World War, and then in 1991, by taking upon itself the entirety of the USSR’s $66 billion perestroika-era debt after the country’s collapse. But Russia has also expressed support for reforming the body to better represent developing nations, particularly India and Brazil, as well as a candidate from Africa. At BRICS summits in 2021 and 2022, Russia and China reiterated their continued support for improving the BRICS’ status at the UN, including via a comprehensive reform of the Security Council.,Iran Asks to Join BRICS27 June, 17:19 GMT,In recent months, these calls have grown louder, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicating in April that countries from the Global South would be an excellent way to curb the “unilateralism” of the West at the UN.,Last week, Russian Ambassador to China Andrei Denisov reaffirmed Russia’s readiness to discuss the expansion of the Security Council to provide membership to India and Brazil, but not US allies Germany and Japan.,“Russia is calling for the expansion of the UN Security Council based on a broad consensus. It requires increasing the proportionate share of African, Asian and Latin American countries for the UN Security Council to be able to reflect the aspirations of people around the world and be a more democratic body,” Denisov said, speaking at the World Peace Forum in Beijing on July 4.,“At the same time, I would like to be frank – we aren’t ready to support the accession of actors such as Germany and Japan. We don’t see any added value from their potential accession. Given the current balance on the Council – or imbalance, I should say, the membership of the two aforementioned candidates is unlikely to strengthen it, rather it will make the imbalance even more striking,” the diplomat stressed.,An Idea Whose Time Has Come?,“It appears that all nations are aware that the UNSC must become more inclusive and representative of the reality of today’s world,” says Paolo Raffone, director of the CIPI Foundation, a Brussels-based think tank.,According to the observer, apart from the 1971 modification of the Council to reflect China taking over Taiwan’s seat, the UNSC of today still largely “reflects the world of 1945.”,“For many years the UNSC has been blocked by cross-veto proceedings, affecting stability and peace in the world. Unblocking the UNSC is the most urgent need for all nations wishing for the effectiveness of a rule-based international systems,” Raffone argues.,Raffone favors adding BRICS countries into the mix, pointing to their collective status representing “the largest share of world population, land and [purchasing power parity],” as well as “spectacular” economic growth over the past two decades. “Their inclusion in the UNSC would certainly strive to keep globalization alive under new rules and governance,” and reduce problems such as lack of democracy, poor geographical representation, and “lack of legitimacy for ensuring global governance” of the current body, he believes.,The observer emphasizes, however, that for any reform initiative to succeed, two-thirds of the UN’s member states would have vote for and ratify it, with every permanent member of the Security Council also needing to agree – no easy task to pull off.,EXCLUSIVE: New Delhi Does Not Support Attempts to Isolate Russia, Says Russian Ambassador to India5 July, 10:29 GMT,New Multipolar World Order,“The enlargement of the UN Security Council would formally certify, on the international level, the transition from US unipolarism to the new multipolar architecture. It would be an epochal event!” says Tiberio Graziani, chairman of Vision & Global Trends: International Institute for Global Analyses, an Italy-based international affairs think tank.,Graziani is convinced that the benefits from the body’s expansion would be multifold, including rebalancing power in international organizations “hitherto essentially ‘Westernist’” and “hegemonized” by the West. “Above all,” he says, “enlargement would be essential to ensure greater stability” in the “turbulent geopolitical and geo-economic transition” that the present moment represents.,The observer stresses that any reforms would need to be gradual to prevent an institutional crisis, but admits that “some reforms must be radical,” given the organization’s dominance by Western powers.,Like Raffone, Graziani supports the increased visibility of BRICS nations in the body, citing their outsized significance to global security and the economy and underrepresentation in this sense.,“At the moment we are in a particular situation: on the one hand there is the West led by the United States and the British which constitutes a conservative pole that aims to maintain a hegemonic role on a planetary level, on the other hand there is a set of nations (basically the BRICS countries) which demand a greater presence in global decisions. Within the framework of the UN, the contribution of the BRICS countries would be fundamental since it would guarantee a balance that has not been there so far,” Graziani believes.,The observer stresses that there simply is no alternative to the UN’s authority in international affairs, and that subsequently, “a new, more balanced (multipolar) international forum needs to be set up” in the present situation.。

B | 七年前，多伦多做过一次NBA历史上最成功的豪赌。

C | 他们送走德罗赞，换来只剩一年合同的伦纳德。

D | 结果只用了一个赛季，伦纳德就把猛龙带到了从未到过的地方——NBA总冠军。

E | 然后，他走了。没有卫冕，没有长期合同，甚至没有给多伦多留下第二次冲冠的机会。七年之后，35岁的伦纳德距离重新穿上猛龙球衣，只差最后一道关。

F | 更疯狂的是，这一次多伦多付出的代价，可能比2018年更让人心惊。英格拉姆、格雷迪·迪克、两个无保护首轮、两个次轮，再加一次首轮互换。

G | 为了一个35岁的伦纳德，猛龙为什么还敢赌这么大？答案其实就藏在2019年那座冠军奖杯里。 01 先把现在的情况说清楚。

H | 猛龙和快船已经在6月底达成伦纳德交易协议。按照公开报道，多伦多得到伦纳德；快船得到英格拉姆、格雷迪·迪克，以及2031年和2033年两个无保护首轮、两个次轮和2027年首轮互换权。但这笔交易目前还没有正式完成。原因不是双方反悔，而是NBA仍在调查快船是否存在规避工资帽的问题。猛龙7月9日明确表示，在联盟调查结束前，他们会等待，不会正式完成交易。 8月17日事情又出现变化。有报道称调查没有找到快船老板鲍尔默通过赞助商违规向伦纳德输送资金的证据，但NBA发言人随后表示相关报道存在“多处重大不准确”，最终调查结果仍未正式公布。所以准确地说：伦纳德回归多伦多的大门已经打开，但最后一步还没有真正迈过去。

I | 可真正值得讨论的，已经不是交易什么时候官宣。而是猛龙为什么愿意为他付出这么多。

J | 02 因为多伦多太清楚一个健康的伦纳德意味着什么。 35岁当然是风险。伤病历史当然也是风险。

K | 可上赛季的伦纳德，依然在65场比赛里场均得到27.9分、6.4个篮板和3.6次助攻。这不是一个准备养老的球员交出的数据。

L | 更重要的是，猛龙现在缺的恰恰不是普通轮换球员。他们需要的是一个能改变季后赛比赛等级的人。上赛季猛龙比此前一个赛季多赢了16场，百回合净胜分达到+2.9，是球队过去六个赛季最好的表现。年轻核心已经有了。

M | 阵容框架也有了。

N | 真正的问题只有一个：谁来打季后赛最难的那几个回合？伦纳德恰好就是这种球员。这也是猛龙愿意再次冒险的底层逻辑。

o | 他们不是在赌伦纳德还能打多少年。他们赌的是—— 未来一两年，他还能不能再打出十几场真正决定冠军归属的比赛。 03 但这一次和2019年完全不同。第一次交易伦纳德时，多伦多赌的是一个27岁的超级巨星。

p | 现在，他们准备迎回一个35岁的老将。第一次，他们付出德罗赞、珀尔特尔和一个受保护首轮，最终换来队史第一座总冠军。现在，筹码里却包括两个无保护首轮。 2031年。 2033年。这才是整笔交易最刺激的地方。因为到了那个时候，伦纳德早就不可能还是猛龙核心。换句话说：今天多伦多为了争冠下注，真正可能承担代价的，是五年甚至七年后的猛龙。这就是冠军窗口最残酷的地方。选秀权意味着未来。伦纳德意味着现在。猛龙正在选择现在。 04 为什么他们敢？因为2019年已经给过答案。很多球队十年、二十年甚至更久，都等不到一次真正接近总冠军的机会。猛龙知道这种机会有多贵。他们也知道伦纳德是什么级别的球员。 2019年的伦纳德只为多伦多打了一个赛季，却完成了很多超级巨星整个职业生涯都没有做到的事情。

q | 他帮助猛龙拿到了队史至今唯一的NBA总冠军。那一年结束之后，他选择离开。多伦多当然遗憾。但很难真正恨他。因为伦纳德已经兑现了最重要的东西。他来了一年，然后留下了一面永远不会消失的冠军旗帜。所以七年后双方再次靠近时，这已经不只是一笔普通交易。更像是两个曾经一起创造奇迹的人，又准备赌一次。 05 当然，这一次失败的代价可能非常大。 35岁的年龄摆在那里。伤病风险摆在那里。两个无保护首轮也摆在那里。如果伦纳德保持健康，猛龙可能瞬间拥有真正的季后赛王牌。但如果身体再次出现问题，多伦多几年后回头看这笔交易，可能会发现自己为了一个短暂窗口付出了太多未来。所以这笔交易真正迷人的地方，从来不是： “伦纳德终于回家了。” 而是：猛龙明明知道所有风险，为什么还是愿意再相信他一次？答案可能非常简单。

r | 因为他们已经赌赢过一次。 2019年，多伦多用一次冒险换来了一座总冠军。那座冠军，也永久改变了这支球队对风险的理解。对于没有赢过冠军的球队来说，两个未来首轮可能是不能碰的资产。但对于真正体验过夺冠滋味的人来说，他们会明白另一件事：未来当然重要。可真正的冠军窗口出现时，它从来不会等你准备好。七年前，猛龙押上德罗赞，赢了。七年后，他们准备把两个无保护首轮和一大包筹码再次推上牌桌。只不过这一次，坐在对面的伦纳德已经35岁。所以真正的问题已经不是：伦纳德该不该回多伦多。而是—— 如果这次豪赌再换来一座冠军，两个无保护首轮还算贵吗？。

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