原标题：杨德龙：美联储继续加息可能陷入滞胀，意味着今年美股无牛市出品 | 搜狐智库编辑 | 郑青春9月14日，受美国通胀数据回落不及预期、美联储货币政策或继续大幅收紧等因素影响，美股三大指数经历2020年6月11日以来最大跌幅。道指跌3.94%，标普500指数跌4.32%，纳指跌5.16%，均结束“四连涨”。
IWAKI, Japan -- A member of the International Atomic Energy Agency team visiting Fukushima for its first marine sampling since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant started releasing treated radioactive wastewater into the sea said Thursday he does not expect any rise in radiation levels in the fish caught in the regional seas.The IAEA team watched flounder and other popular kinds of fish being caught off the coast earlier Thursday and brought on boats to the Hisanohama port in southern Fukushima for an auction.“I can say that we don’t expect to see any change starting in the fish," said Paul McGinnity, an IAEA marine radiology scientist.A small rise in the levels of tritium, which cannot be removed from the Fukushima Daiichi wastewater by the plant's treatment system called ALPS, is possible in locations close to the discharge points, but the levels of radioactivity are expected to be similar to those measured before the discharge last year, he said. Fukushima Daiichi started releasing wastewater into the sea on Aug. 24. The release, which is expected to continue for decades, has been strongly opposed by fishing groups and neighboring countries including South Korea, where hundreds of people have protested.China immediately banned all imports of Japanese seafood the day the release began, badly hurting Japanese seafood producers, processors and exporters, and Russia recently joined China in the trade restrictions.The IAEA has reviewed the safety of the wastewater release and concluded in July that if carried out as planned, it would have a negligible impact on the environment, marine life and human health.During the Oct. 16-23 visit, the IAEA team also inspected the collection and processing of seawater and marine sediment near the plant, which suffered triple meltdowns following the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.The IAEA's visit is significant not only because it is the first since the discharge began but also since the IAEA will be able to see firsthand how the fish is sampled and packed, McGinnity said. This will help them better evaluate the results, not just from laboratory testing and data analysis, he said.IAEA selected six species of fish — olive flounder, crimson sea bream, redwing searobin, Japanese jack mackerel, silver croaker and vermiculated puffer fish — because they are known to have higher levels of radioactivity than other species due to the areas they tend to move around in, McGinnity said. The Japanese government asked the IAEA to conduct the environmental and fish sampling to build confidence about the data that Japan provides amid skepticism in some IAEA member states, McGinnity said without identifying which countries.The sample collection team includes two staff from the IAEA Marine Environment Laboratories in Monaco, as well as experts from laboratories in China, South Korea and Canada.The fish collected Thursday were to be shipped to a Fisheries Agency laboratory in Chiba, near Tokyo, where the IAEA team will inspect them on Friday.They will send identical samples to about a dozen participating laboratories, including in Japan, China, South Korea and Canada, for comparison and analysis of radioactivity and evaluation, the IAEA said. The sampling work will be followed by a separate IAEA task force that will review the safety of the treated radioactive water.Japan’s government has set up a relief fund to help find new markets and reduce the impact of China’s seafood ban. Measures include the temporary purchase, freezing and storage of seafood and promotion of seafood sales at home.TEPCO and the government say discharging the water into the sea is unavoidable because the tanks will reach their 1.37 million-ton capacity next year and space at the plant will be needed for its decommissioning, which is expected to take decades, if it is achievable at all.They say the water is treated to reduce radioactive materials to safe levels, and then is diluted with seawater by hundreds of times to make it much safer than international standards. Some experts say such long-term release of low-dose radioactivity is unprecedented and requires close monitoring.。前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙表示，受到隔夜美股暴跌的影响，A股市场出现了震荡调整的走势，但是跌幅并不大，相对美股来说比较抗跌。
由于美国通胀数据回落不及预期，美联储货币政策可能会继续大幅收紧，9月份美联储再次加息75个基点的可能性大幅增加。
二 |
美国8月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比上涨8.3%，再度强化了美联储持续激进加息的预期。美国总统拜登承认控制通胀需要花费更多时间和决心。杨德龙对此分析，8月美国消费者价格指数CPI同比涨幅回落至8.3%，7月份数据为8.5%，通胀水平虽然再次回落，但是仍然处于历史高位，回落幅度不大。环比来看，8月CPI增值0.1%，而剔除食品和能源成分的核心CPI环比涨0.6%，同比涨6.3%，这说明美联储虽然今年四次加息，加息斜率历史上罕见，但是仍然没有真正的将通胀降下来。“下周三美联储将举行9月份联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议，这次公布的通胀数据是会前披露的最后一份重要数据。市场预期美联储将继续大幅加息75个基点来抑制通胀，并且未来或将继续维持激进紧缩政策，这对于股市来说是不利的。美股结束四连阳出现大幅杀跌，即反映了这样的预期。”杨德龙说。他指出，美联储制定的长期中性目标通胀率为2%，现在离2%还有很远的距离。经过3月、5月、6月、7月4次加息，包括6月和7月连续两次大幅加息75个基点，联邦基准利率目前已经提高到2.25%到2.5%，9月份如果再次加息75个基点，联邦基准利率将提升到3%以上。这无疑对美国经济增长也会形成比较明显的影响，造成经济增速下滑，陷入滞胀，即经济停滞通货膨胀的状态。通胀无牛市，也意味着美股今年以来的表现应该不会太好。“隔夜美股惨遭血洗，道指狂泻约1000点，反映出投资者对于通胀居高不下的担忧。美元指数应声大涨，突破109。短期国债收益率飙升，两年期国债收益率一度飙升12个基点至3.69%，这些都反映出市场对于美联储加息的预期越来越强烈。”杨德龙表示，相对而言，我国当前通胀水平不高，一直控制在3%以内的良性通胀水平，这也为我国货币政策保持独立性提供了一定的基础。杨德龙分析称，美联储大幅加息使得美元指数飙升，而非美货币出现贬值。人民币汇率在隔夜也一度逼近7.0指数关口，这一定程度上压缩了央行宽松货币政策的空间。中美货币政策偏差是人民币汇率出现短期贬值的一个重要因素，预计在稳增长的政策目标之下，年底之前央行还是以较为宽松的货币政策为主，但是再次降息的可能性已经减小，更多的可能会通过实施公开市场操作来释放流动性。
返回搜狐，查看更多责任编辑：
